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Team USA Roster Analysis: How does Team USA's hockey team compare to Canada?

Written by Jay | 15 February 2010

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Team USA Olympic Hockey Team:  Roster Analysis

Team USA's opening game of these Olympics will be tomorrow against Team Switzerland.  In anticipation of this and other games, I've taken a look at how Team USA's roster stacks up against that of Team Canada.  We all know that Ryan Miller's had a great season in the NHL this year.  Outside of goaltending, what are the areas of strength and weakness for Team USA?

Brian Burke ostensibly assembled Team USA's hockey team to be able to compete for a gold medal at the 2010 Olympics.  His decision to select Jonathan Quick in favor of Craig Anderson has already created some controversy.  Due to injuries, both Mike Komisarek and Paul Martin on defense have been replaced with Tim Gleason and Ryan Whitney.

Speaking of defense, by the numbers this looks to be the achilles heel of this hockey team.  Follow the jump to find out why...  Note, this article has been modified and reprinted with permission from the Low On Oil Oilers fan blog.

Finally, let's also find out how Team USA compares to Team Canada in terms of goal-scoring potential (GVT) after the jump.

Team USA Olympic Hockey Roster Evaluation - Forward Skaters

Player GP G A P +/- GVT
Zach Parise 59 27 33 60 25 17
Patrick Kane 59 24 40 64 17 14.6
J Langenbrunner 60 15 36 51 13 10.7
Ryan Kesler 60 16 37 53 1 9.7
Bobby Ryan 60 27 20 47 5 9.2
Phil Kessel 49 21 20 41 -3 8.7
Joe Pavelski 46 16 19 35 9 7.3
Paul Stastny 60 12 42 54 10 7.3
Ryan Malone 59 21 21 42 -3 6
Dustin Brown 60 15 27 42 -2 5.9
David Backes 58 13 22 35 -2 5.5
Ryan Callahan 61 15 17 32 -13 4.5
Chris Drury 56 9 12 21 -12 3
Total 747 231 346 577 45 109.4
Average 57.46 17.77 26.62 44.38 3.46 8.42
  • By the numbers, Team USA's forward skaters compare reasonably well to Team Canada.  Goals vs. Threshold is a statistical metric from Behind the Net which represents the value in goals that a player contributes in excess of a replacement level player.  Essentially, the higher the number, the more valuable the player's individual contribution.  Zero represents the threshold level of a replacement level player while negative numbers reflect a player who's contribution is lower than replacement value.
  • Comparatively, Team Canada's forward skaters have a total GVT of 139 which means that Team USA has a lower number (109.4), but is actually close behind.
  • Zach Parise and Patrick Kane lead Team USA by this metric with player contributions of 17 and 14.6 respectively.
  • Chris Drury and Ryan Callahan, both of the New York Rangers, have the lowest numbers of 3 and 4.5 respectively.
  • Overall, Team Canada's forward skaters had an average +/- of 6.15 along with an average number of goals of 22.15 at fewer games played compared to Team USA's number with an average +/- of 3.46 and average goals scored of 17.77.  Team USA appears to have less firepower than Team Canada up front with their forward skaters.

Team USA Olympic Hockey Roster Evaluation - Defensemen

Player GP G A P +/- GVT
Brian Rafalski 56 4 24 28 16 8.1
Ryan Suter 60 2 24 26 8 6.3
Erik Johnson 59 5 23 28 1 6
Tim Gleason 52 5 12 17 1 4.9
Brooks Orpik 53 0 18 18 6 4.6
Jack Johnson 58 6 18 24 -14 4.3
Ryan Whitney 60 4 23 27 -5 3.9
Total 398 26 142 168 13 38.1
Average 56.86 3.71 20.29 24.00 1.86 5.44
  • Team USA's defense appears to be the team's Achilles heal. 
  • Compared to Team Canada which has an average +/- of 8.14 for their defensemen, Team USA's defensemen have an average +/- of just +1.
  • As well, Team USA's defensemen have scored an average of just 3.71 goals (average 56.86 games) compared to Team Canada's defensemen who scored an average of 8.29 goals (average 55.29 games). 
  • Team USA's GVT of 38.1 is just over half that of Team Canada's GVT of 73.7 which suggests that there's a big gap in terms of quality of defensemen on Team USA.

Team USA Olympic Hockey Roster Evaluation - Goal tending

Player GP SV% GAA GVT
Ryan Miller 51 0.93 2.19 27.6
Tim Thomas 35 0.915 2.52 8
Jonathan Quick 54 0.906 2.57 5
Total 140 2.751 7.28 40.6
Average 46.67 0.92 2.43 13.53
  • With Ryan Miller's .930 save percentage (SV%) and 2.19 goals-against average (GAA), he compares favorably to anyone on Team Canada. 
  • Team Canada's lead by Roberto Luongo who had a .920 save percentage, 2.32 GAA, and a GVT of 15.5 after 49 games played this season.
  • However, after Ryan Miller, the drop off is significant in terms of Team USA's goaltending.
  • One controversial decision that Brian Burke made was choosing Jonathan Quick in favor of Craig Anderson.
  • Craig Anderson has a GVT of 24.1, .925 SV%, and a 2.41 GAA after 51 games played this season which look better than either Tim Thomas or Jonathan Quick.
  • With Ryan Miller carrying the load in terms of statistics for Team USA, he helps elevate their average numbers to compare quite equally with Team Canada.
  • In short, Team USA appears to have a better top-end goaltender than Team Canada, but there's a big drop-off after Ryan Miller thanks to Brian Burke not selecting Craig Anderson.

Team Canada vs. USA Overall

  • Team Canada has a total GVT of 253.5 compared to Team USA's total GVT of 188.1.
  • Team Canada has more firepower up front in terms of their forward skaters than Team USA (GVT of 139 vs 109.4 respectively).
  • The biggest gap between these two teams is terms of defensemen where Team USA is a step behind in terms of goal scoring, +/-. and GVT (73.7 Canada vs 38.1 USA).
  • Goaltending is the single area of dominance for Team USA over Team Canada in terms of top-end statistical numbers with Ryan Miller leading the way. 
  • After Ryan Miller, Team USA's goaltender statistics are fairly pedestrian.

Jay M.Jay M. writes about the Edmonton Oilers at Low On Oil in addition to his work on Bloguin's Olympic Hockey Blog.

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